- June 25, 2026
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It was 2022. While the world was emerging from pandemic lockdowns, Sarasota County, like much of Florida, was reaping the benefits from an early start of lifting restrictions and inviting all to come visit and, if you liked it here, put down roots.
The sudden and rapid in-migration that followed launched property values into dizzying heights, filling the coffers of local governments to the brim and then some. The population growth fueled a hiring blitz in the halls of government and revived capital projects that were delayed. You could almost hear the pre-Depression ditty “Happy Days are Here Again,” ringing through the palms.
The good times, it seemed, were here to stay.
That was until post-Covid supply chain recovery enabled home construction to finally catch up with demand and a few nasty tropical weather systems took some of the shine off the idea of living on a 380-mile-long peninsula surrounded by ocean, leaving real estate — and accompanying tax values — stagnant.
And who could have even conceived of a statewide referendum on property taxes that is now — amid the fiscal year 2027 budget season — forcing cities and counties across the state to consider how to address a significant percentage of ad valorem tax revenue vanishing from the balance sheet?
In anticipation of a worst-case scenario, at the behest of the Sarasota County Commission, some preemptive belt-tightening has already begun.
Sarasota County’s Office of Financial Management projects that, if the required 60% of Florida voters approve the property tax referendum in November, by fiscal year 2029 the county will lose some $87 million in property taxes. That’s 28.5% of the revenue the county projects to collect in fiscal year 2027, the last year before the reform measures would begin. That also represents 17% of the general fund of next year’s estimated $509.4 million.
On June 16 and 17, Sarasota County commissioners received and discussed County Administrator Jonathan Lewis’ preliminary budget for next fiscal year, which recommends no change in the county’s millage rate and a modest 1.3% increase in balanced revenue and spending. Earlier this year, commissioners instructed county administration to return with spending growth of no more than 1.6% and to find $5 million in cuts.
The budget also recommends no increase in the base millage rate.
To get there, they made the same request of the constitutional officers — whose budgets are approved by the state and applied to the counties’ tax bases — most of whom managed to comply.
Sarasota County general fund budgets | ||||
Board of County Commissioners controlled | ||||
| Department | FY2026 | FY2027 Prelim. | Difference | Change |
| Transit | $28,711,651 | $26,891,745 | -$1,8189,909 | -6.3% |
| Parks, Recreation, Natural Resources | $25,304,058 | $25,617,893 | $313,835 | 1.2% |
| Libraries & Historical Resources | $18,011,906 | $18,813,680 | $801,774 | 4.5% |
| General Services | $18,019,391 | $17,691,658 | -$327,661 | -1.8% |
| Transportation | $12,312,947 | $11,555,349 | -$757,598 | -6.2% |
| Planning & Development Services | $9,761,099 | $9,417,524 | -$343,575 | -3.5% |
| Office of Financial Management | $8,000,723 | $8,294,956 | $294,224 | 3.7% |
| Non-Departmental* | $7,382,902 | $6,273,163 | -$1,109,739 | -15.0% |
| Emergency Services | $6,037,605 | $5,967,651 | -$69,954 | -1.2% |
| Health & Human Services | $5,938,128 | $5,956,927 | $18,799 | 0.3% |
| Office of County Attorney | $4,367,996 | $4,349,260 | -$18,836 | -0.4% |
| Communications | $4,115,333 | $4,234,746 | $119,413 | 2.9% |
| Human Resources | $3,348,186 | $3,483,358 | $135,172 | 4.0% |
| UF/IFAS Extension | $2,523,702 | $2,506,612 | -$17,090 | -0.7% |
| County Administration | $2,529,050 | $2,385,424 | -$143,626 | -5.7% |
| Governmental Relations | $1,529,652 | $1,300,399 | -$229,253 | -15.0% |
| Total | $157,894,266 | $154,740,245 | -$3,154,021 | -2.0% |
| *Reserves, capital improvement transfers, etc. | ||||
Constitutional officers | ||||
| Sheriff’s Office | $221,260,574 | $224,471,941 | $3,211,367 | 1.5% |
| Tax Collector** | $15,741,407 | $18,608,559 | $2,867,152 | 18.2% |
| Clerk of Circuit Court | $13,828,087 | $14,107,871 | $279,784 | 2.0% |
| Property Appraiser | $10,633,995 | $10,311,689 | -$322,306 | -3.0% |
| Supervisor of Elections | $9,737,476 | $9,893,224 | $155,748 | 1.6% |
| Debt Transfers | $3,653,109 | $5,156,053 | $1,502,944 | 41.1% |
| Total | $274,854,648 | $282,549,337 | $7,694,689 | 2.8% |
| **Not due until Aug. 1 | ||||
Other elected and appointed officials and agencies | ||||
| Court administration | $7,085,064 | $7,885,512 | $80,448 | 1.0% |
| Medical Examiner | $6,775,503 | $5,435,518 | -$1,339,985 | -19.8% |
| State Attorney | $2,525,779 | $2,566,191 | $40,412 | 1.6% |
| Public Defender | $2,339,396 | $2,488,119 | $148,723 | 6.45% |
| Board of County Commissioners | $1,062,105 | $1,096,718 | $34,613 | 3.3% |
| Guardian Ad Litem | $386,159 | $396,901 | $10,742 | 2.8% |
| Charter Review Board | $3,000 | $3,000 | $0 | 0% |
| Other | $20,897,006 | $19,871,959 | -$1,025,047 | -4.9% |
| Total | $295,751,654 | $302,421,296 | $6,669,642 | 2.3% |
| General Fund grand total | $502,919,082 | $509,426,222 | $6,507,140 | 1.3% |
Not only would the constitutional amendment reduce the available property tax revenue, it also comes with spending restrictions, some of which may require legal opinions. For example, whether property tax may be spent on parks and park maintenance remains a question.
For certain, though, the county will be required to make its debt service payments or risk having its bond rating downgraded, which would be mean higher interest rates for borrowing and greater scrutiny by investors. Even if the county remains current on its debt service, county administration told commissioners Sarasota and every other county in the state face the prospects of a downgrade.
“Based on some extremes, our ratings could go down,” said Deputy County Administrator and Chief Financial Management Officer Steve Botelho. “We won't be a AAA-rated entity. I would assume the board's priority would be to make the bond payments and make good on that bond obligation, but the factors of how the rating agencies are going to look upon us as a county — and within the state all 67 counties — will probably be faced with an extra level of scrutiny from the rating agencies.”
Not all bond debt is paid from property tax proceeds. Revenues are derived from other sources, such as the tourist development tax, penny sales tax, impact fees and others.
“As long as we're making the debt service payments but also keeping those required reserves for security on that debt where they're supposed to be, for the short term it is probably good,” said Lewis. “I think the long term is anybody's guess.”
Although many capital projects are funded by sources other than property tax revenues, ongoing operations costs are not. That puts in danger, for example, the long-awaited Longboat Key library, which is nearing the end of design. The $11 million in county funds to build the library are in place via the library impact fee, but the upwards of $1.5 million in annual operating costs are not.
Equally concerning is funding for parks operations, which some interpretations of the amendment suggest cannot be funded by property tax revenues.
“The question of amenities in the community has probably never been more pertinent than it is right now with discussions at the statewide level,” Lewis said. Citing the commission’s focus on regional parks that began in 2016, many of those projects, such as the 17th Street Park adjacent to Bobby Jones Nature Park, are already under development.
“Creating those recreation destinations, whether they're sports tourism or for our community as a whole, there’s a variety of those that have been put in place and are ongoing right now," Lewis said.
At $509.4 million, the preliminary general fund expenditure is $6.5 million higher than the current fiscal year. It’s also about one-fifth of the county’s entire budget of $2.53 billion, which includes non-ad valorem-funded services such as fire and rescue, utilities, stormwater, solid waste and others.
Should the property tax referendum be approved, local governments will be left with few options to make ends meet — make deep cuts or increase the millage and/or impact fees, even the latter heavily regulated by the state.
Tallahassee made a similar attempt increase the homestead exemption in 2018 with Florida Amendment 1, which would have exempted up to $125,000 of tax valuation from non-school property taxes had it succeeded. It fell short of the 60% required threshold for approval by only 2%.
Lewis said he is hopeful for a repeat verdict by the voters.
“I just don't believe that when the voters know the impact to their libraries, their park system, the potential impact on law enforcement, all the people who are part of the Florida retirement system as retirees, all the (government) construction projects that the vendors need … they voted it down in 2018,” he said. “We haven't seen the actual language yet, but I wouldn't be in this business if I didn't think the services these people are providing weren't what the public want.”
The next budget workshop is scheduled for Aug. 21, which could be cancelled if there is no further business to discuss. A cancelled July meeting may be revived should conditions warrant. Budget public hearings are scheduled for Sept. 9 and 23, the latter including final approval of the fiscal year 2027 budget.
