- August 14, 2026
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For what soon will be 16 years, Florida has had a good run with Republican Govs. Rick Scott and Ron DeSantis and the Republican Legislature.
One measure of that is in the annual rankings of the Rich States, Poor States Competitiveness Index. For the past 16 years, economists Arthur Laffer, Stephen Moore and Jonathan Williams have compiled detailed rankings on each state’s economic performance and economic outlook.
Florida has been an all-star all 16 years — an average ranking in the top 10. In 2026, the index ranks Florida No. 1 for economic performance the past 10 years.
The Laffer rankings measure states on taxation and the growth in gross domestic product, migration and employment. And each year, its index has shown that states with falling tax, spending and regulatory burdens experience higher and faster economic growth than states with rising burdens.
The conclusion: Elections have consequences.
Let’s hope Florida voters recognize the candidates who can keep the state on the right economic track.
What follows below are our recommendations for a few key races in the Aug. 18 primary. Assessments for all races can be found at YourObserver.com/Opinion.
When Florida voters vote early, fill out their mail-in ballots or go to the polls Aug. 18, the first names Democrats and Republicans will see on their ballot are those for the U.S. Senate.
Four Republicans, two Democrats.
It’s a good bet millions of Floridians won’t know any of the candidates. For political junkies and engaged voters, it will be a little different. They likely are to have some familiarity with two of the six candidates — Ashley Moody on the Republican side and Alexander Vindman on the Democrat side.
That these are the only two recognizable names is an indicator of just how difficult it is to be a candidate for a statewide office and run a statewide campaign. It takes a lot to build the name recognition that’s needed.
Which is why Moody and Vindman should coast to primary victories.
Who are they? We shouldn’t have to write this, but involved Republican voters know that Moody is Florida’s junior U.S. senator and former Florida attorney general. Gov. Ron DeSantis appointed the Plant City native to her seat after President Trump tapped Marco Rubio to be secretary of state.
Vindman is famous and infamous for being the guy who brought about Trump’s first impeachment when he told the world about Trump’s phone call to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in 2019.
The other candidates? Bless them for their passion and having the courage to run.
On the Republican ballot, of the other three candidates, one who could be a good candidate is the Rev. Ernest “Ernie” Rivera, a long-time Presbyterian minister from Tampa. On the Democrat side, Vindman’s only opponent is a Florida state representative from Jacksonville, Angie Nixon.
But just to emphasize almost how impossible it is for unknown candidates and the advantages that Moody and Vindman have, look at how much the latter two raised in campaign contributions: Moody and Vindman each has raised $16 million. Nixon has raised $625,000; Rivera has raised almost $300,000.
The primary is just a warm-up for Moody and Vindman. The real race for U.S. Senate will begin Aug. 19.
We recommend: Ashley Moody
— This is the first of two rounds to determine who will fill the seat of retiring, longtime Congressman Vern Buchanan.
It won’t be close in the primary. The contribution numbers tell the story (as of the June 30 filings):
What’s more, Gruters has Donald Trump’s endorsement. (She better have. Husband and Florida Sen. Joe Gruters is chairman of the Republican National Committee and former chair of the Republican Party of Florida.)
Ok, so that makes it sound like Mrs. Gruters is on the ballot just because of her marital relationship. But active Republicans know she has a political resume of her own:
One of the other Republican contenders, Edward P. Pope of Parrish, has an impressive personal record, having served 14 years as a highly decorated officer in the Florida Highway Patrol and currently chief operating officer at Interstate Courier Service Inc., a medical courier operator in nine states.
You have to like what Pope says he would bring to Congress: “[S]omeone who has worn the uniform, balanced budgets, led teams under pressure and delivered measurable outcomes. I bring courage without compromise, experience without excuses and leadership without ego. I am not running to build a political career — I am running to protect the way of life that makes this country worth fighting for.”
Unfortunately, the District 16 Republicans don’t know him; he’s new to the political scene.
As for Speir, while we may have backed him two years ago as a lark, as it turns out, let’s just say look up his name on floridapolitics.com.
We recommend: Sydney Gruters
With 17 people — 11 Republicans, six Democrats — running for their parties’ gubernatorial nomination, you have to chuckle. What are these people thinking.
Truth is, only four out of the whole bunch possibly had a chance from the start — and that’s because they have at least some name recognition.
The rest? No one knows them, except, say, their families and neighbors.
Nonetheless, give all of them credit for doing what most Floridians wouldn’t think of doing — run for public office. Teddy Roosevelt would have cheered them on for jumping into the arena.
But at this point, when you look at the two parties’ gubernatorial races for the primary election, the fund-raising totals tell you what the outcomes are going to be.
By the end of July, Republican Congressman Byron Donalds had raised an astonishing $104.6 million. Democrat David Jolly was second with a $9 million. And in third: the former Florida House speaker, Republican Paul Renner, with $7 million.
Obviously, Jolly will be the Democrat nominee. And barring a miracle for Renner, Donalds, all but anointed by Donald Trump, will be the Republican nominee.
We’ll pray for a miracle. Renner would make a better governor. Donalds should stay in Congress.
Before making the case for Renner, it also should be said neither Donalds nor Renner makes a convincing case if you read their platforms on their websites. Neither articulates a simple, grand vision that resonates.
Donalds touts more audits of government spending; more rules for insurers; more rules about pricing for doctors; more mandates to speed up permitting; creating mandated “personalized academic and career” roadmaps for sixth-12th grade students; more teacher-training programs. More government mandates and bureaucracy.
He sounds like a Democrat.
Meanwhile, Renner’s online agenda comes across as if he is still managing the bills of his fellow legislators in the House. Prosecute self-dealing elected officials; death penalty for human trafficking; prohibit geoengineering and weather modification; stop digital IDs; eliminate Flock cameras. We’ll also take strong exception to his advocating for moratoria on data centers — bad, dumb position.
Here’s the thing: At their political, philosophical cores, Donalds and Renner are conservatives whom we would expect to carry on the conservative principles of their predecessors, former Gov. Rick Scott and outgoing Gov. Ron DeSantis.
But of the two, having served two years as House speaker and eight years in the Florida House, Renner has nearly a decade of being intimately involved in state government policies and its management versus Donalds’ four years as a state representative. It takes leadership to corral the 120 members of the Florida House and have the Senate agree, and Renner did so more than admirably.
As speaker, Renner steered the Legislature to adopting a remarkable agenda of conservative legislation: Universal school choice; tort and insurance reform that led to premium reductions; child protections on social media; pro-life, “heart-beat” legislation; elimination of DEI at universities; open-carry gun law; and tax and spending cuts.
We recommend: Paul Renner
This is one of those Florida cabinet positions that makes Floridians wonder every four years why this is an electable office. That’s a long history lesson.
Suffice it to say, the incumbent CFO, Blaise Ingoglia doesn’t have serious opposition from either another Republican or the two Democrats vying for their party’s nomination.
At one time, this might have been a tough contest between Ingoglia and Sarasota’s own Sen. Joe Gruters. But when Gruters was elevated to chairman of the Republican National Committee, that gave Ingoglia a clear path to election.
Gov. DeSantis appointed Ingoglia CFO after his predecessor, Jimmy Patronis, won election to the District 1 congressional seat. From Spring Hill, Ingoglia is a 12-year Tallahassee politician: Florida House, 2014-2022; Florida Senate, 2022-2025.
We recommend: Blaise Ingoglia
Probably the only thing most Floridians know about the commissioner of agriculture and consumer services is they see a seal-of-approval sticker with the department and commissioner’s name on gas pumps at all service stations.
What’s more, as with the state’s CFO, Floridians probably wonder why they elect an ag commissioner. Once again: It’s a long history lesson.
But here we are, and it’s time to select the commissioner of agriculture for another four years. Let’s cut to the quick, because none of the candidates trying to challenge incumbent Wilton Simpson comes close in qualifications.
Truth be told, Simpson actually would make a good conservative governor. But over the past four years he has been a great commissioner of agriculture and consumer services.
The former Senate president, Simpson is also a farmer and entrepreneur. If you put his legislative and ag commissioner record (see wiltonsimpson.com) up against any of the other statewide candidates for any office, you’d check his name on the ballot.
We recommend: Wilton Simpson
Two-term state Rep. James Buchanan, son of Congressman Vern Buchanan, is vying this cycle to move to the Florida Senate and fill the seat being vacated by Sen. Joe Gruters.
Buchanan clearly and definitively has earned the position.
For one, the district’s Republican voters should not even consider for a few seconds Buchanan’s Republican challenger. Instead, the convincing argument is that over the past four years Buchanan has grown strong sea legs in the Legislature and has matured into a solid lawmaker respected among his peers.
In the halls of the capitol, that is crucial.
He won special praise from the House and Senate leadership for shepherding through the special session legislation that assured that Florida’s tax collectors could not diminish the revenues of from special-voted school district ad valorem taxes.
With Buchanan moving into the Senate, Sarasota County representation would maintain familiarity and continuity among the legislative leadership. Not only does Buchanan understand the players and machinations of the House, Buchanan also would move into the Senate having a good relationship with incoming Senate President Jim Boyd of Bradenton. That counts a lot.
We recommend: Jame Buchanan
With Rep. Will Robinson reaching his term limit, that opened the door for new legislative blood. And behind the scenes, there is blood in the water.
Manatee’s rank and file Republican voters don’t know this, but this contest is a battle royale between trial lawyer Melton Little and a longtime Manatee business family. That would be candidate Jordan Varnadore.
When you peruse each candidate’s campaign contributions, two messages come through:
On Varnadore’s side, he has the support of Boyd Insurance & Investment Services Inc. and Boyd Realty LLC, both affiliated with incoming Florida Senate President Jim Boyd. In addition, Varnadore has the support of the Florida Chamber of Commerce and Associated Industries of Florida, the latter a premier business advocacy organization in Florida.
Perhaps a good way to summarize who would best represent Manatee in the Republican dominated Legislature may be this: Little would be expected to “play hardball” and be more aggressive than Varnadore. And if you’re familiar with how the Legislature works, freshmen House members who agitate typically find themselves ignored by leadership.
We recommend: Jordan Varnadore
The stop-growth Bob McCann and Bradenton Times crowd would love to see District 72 voters oust incumbent Rep. William “Bill” Conerly.
They are trying to fire-hose Conerly with the black paint of a tool of developers and betrayer of Manatee residents.
Much of this opposition stems from a vote in 2025 for which the anti-growthers are off base.
That would be Senate Bill 180. Detractors say Conerly voted against a bill that they say would have allowed the Manatee County Commission to re-expand its wetland buffer zones greater than state requirements and to reinstate impact fees.
If you talk to Conerly, he explains: “Look at the title of the bill.” Which was “Emergencies.” It was introduced in the aftermath of the 2024 hurricanes and intended to stop many Florida municipalities from imposing moratoria or regulations that prevented property owners from rebuilding what they previously had before the storms destroyed their properties.
But let’s get beyond the nitpickiness of the opposition’s lack of knowledge. Look closely at the knowledge and skill sets of the three candidates vying for this House seat. In addition to Conerly, there is Republican John “Captain” Phillips, a 30-year retired Coast Guard veteran, and unopposed Democrat Harvey Shifrin, a lawyer, accountant and brief school board candidate.
In one respect, this tells it all — the amount of campaign contributions they have raised (as of July 30):
But here is what really matters: The distance between Conerly’s value and knowledge for Manatee County residents and the state of Florida over his challengers is Earth to Mars.
Conerly is the only practicing engineer in the Legislature. Educated as an agricultural and biological engineer, he has spent the past 30 years as a project engineer and leading manager/engineer involved in master-planned communities, senior housing, healthcare facilities, utilities, schools and commercial and mixed-use projects and municipal projects.
There is likely no other legislator who understands the environment as Conerly does is as focused on sensible, sustainable and balanced policies for Florida’s environment, economy and taxpayers.
We recommend: William “Bill” Conerly
This is crazy. Three of the four candidates in the Republican primary for this seat have raised $1,231,817 as of the end of July to win a $30,000 part-time job.
Of that absurd amount, this tops that: 24-year-old Kelly Ann Walker has raised an astonishing $540,426 — $395,500 of which has come from family members, her father’s business and family loans.
It gets more amazing.
Walker is an aspiring first-time candidate for any office. She has yet to have held a full-time job in the private sector. She has served as what you’d categorize as an intern in the congressional offices of Reps. Greg Steube and Vern Buchanan. Oh, and Steube has endorsed her.
On her website, Walker says she grew up in Manatee “raising chickens, ducks, cows and horses”; gathered eggs; hauled hay and comforted “sick animals late at night,” all of which taught her “the “meaning of discipline, responsibility and resilience.”
Walker earned an MBA from Stetson University and serves as secretary of the Sarasota-Manatee Young Republicans.
All of that, voters are to presume, qualifies Miss Walker to understand and be a steward of Florida’s $114 billion budget.
Bless young Walker’s ambitions, but two other candidates are better qualified for the office: Nick Pachota and Jennifer Peeples Winkler.
Pachota currently is mayor of Venice. He has six years of experience as an elected member of the Venice City Council. He was elected in 2019 and was elected mayor in 2022. He knows what it takes to govern a municipality.
He knows what business ownership means. Pachota is one of the co-owners in the prominent Venice family’s business — Venice Pier Group, owners of the Sharky’s, Fins at Sharky’s, Siesta Beach Eats and The Nest at Bay Park in Sarasota. He also is a former EMT, paramedic, firefighter and SWAT medic.
All of that gives Pachota the breadth of experience to understand and make decisions about issues that come before the Legislature. What’s more, he has earned the respect of his Venice constituents.
There is a “however,” however, worth noting.
While Pachota is just one of seven votes on the Venice City Council, during Pachota’s term as mayor, the Venice city operating budget has grown 55%, about twice as fast as population growth and inflation. And during his time on the council, the city’s operating spending has increased 75%. If he were running for re-election to the council, that’s not a winning record.
Which brings us to Jennifer Peeples Winkler. She has raised the least amount among the three leading candidates — $266,811, compared to Pachota’s $424,580. And she doesn’t have the Republican establishment endorsements that Pachota has.
But Winkler has attributes that make her a viable candidate: She started her insurance agency in 2014, has grown it to three offices and 20 employees and has survived its tumultuous roller-coasters over the past 12 years. That takes grit and round-the-clock perseverance.
Winkler is often viewed as a one-issue candidate — insurance. She knows how property insurance costs still are choking Floridians, and she wants to be an advocate for policies that will make insurance still less costly. Truth is, there are few legislators who understand the complexities of insurance.
And finally, those who know Winkler, also know she has a long record of volunteerism and leadership in her community. You have to admire anyone who has served five years as den leader of Cub Scout Pack 911.
In Pachota and Winkler, voters have two solid choices and cannot go wrong either way.
We recommend: Toss-up, Nick Pachota or Jennifer Peeples Winkler
This story has been updated to correct the recommendation for the District 71 race.
