Season forecast optimistic despite uncertainty on Longboat Key

As many Longboat Key residents as you talk to, you’ll probably hear something different about the upcoming winter. Some snowbirds are staying away from Florida indefinitely, like many Canadian snowbirds. Others are keeping their plans solid, or even coming down earlier, while still others are delaying their trips until the new year. 

“I think people are playing it by ear,” Seaplace resident Kathy Neudorfer said. “They don’t know what to do.” 

In a year unlike any other, of course we’ll have a season unlike any other. While most are optimistic that there will indeed be a winter season, the question of how exactly it will go remains. But in the “mini season” of October through December, however, it’s not quite time to worry. The snowbirds may yet fly south in their normal droves. 

The draw of sunshine

Wagner Realty property manager Bonnie Wiederman is extremely optimistic. 

“There definitely will be a season,” she said.

Wiederman had a great summer and is seeing demand tick up in intensity since the beginning of October. Most of those requests are for January and February, when the thick of season starts. A lot of her repeat renters are coming back too, save for the Canadians. 

“I’ve had very few cancellations and even the ones that have cancelled I’ve been able to rebook,” Wiederman said. “Some of my more mature (older) guests are not really concerned about being here, but they’re concerned about getting here.” 

Typically, Wiederman will see her six-month renters arrive in November, but some are coming in October this year. Some of her guests have said that they’re not going out to eat or doing much out and about at home and that they may continue that when they get here. 

Part-time resident and Longboat Library President Mary Baker is coming back from Michigan as normal at the end of October. Being able to be outside is drawing some part-time residents back to Longboat Key despite the murky socializing situation.

“We've had a beautiful fall until a week ago … but all of a sudden, it's cold and rainy and 40 degrees and miserable,” Baker said. “So that's making me want to pack my bags.”

Getting together in person is a big question mark, even with the library, which has been closed since the beginning of the pandemic. The library’s board will meet soon to try to work out whether or not to open.

“It's really hard for me not being there,” Baker said. “I'll have a different feel when I get there and I see which of our volunteers are back.”

Entering a new area is tricky, too, since the pandemic looks different all over. Baker has been careful at home, not going out to restaurants and getting curbside pickup for her groceries. She thinks that will continue in Florida, at least until she gets a feel for how pandemic-era life is like here, because she hasn’t been here since March. 

Patrick and Sandy Bogert also haven’t been on Longboat Key since March, when they packed up and left in a hurry as the pandemic quickly spread. They won’t be back anytime soon, but not for a lack of interest. 

The Canadian couple would only be able to enter the United States via plane due to the restricted border travel, and they normally drive down with their do. Plus, given that they do not have access to their country’s healthcare system in Florida, they’re staying put for now. Some travel insurance provides COVID-19 coverage, but Patrick Bogert is worried about whether the total coverage would be enough in case of hospitalization. 

“If we feel that we can be covered properly by insurance, and we can get down there, once we're there, I think we would feel very safe,” Patrick Bogert said. 

Experiencing the same uncertainty that has plagued everyone since the spring, the Bogerts just aren’t sure what their winter season will look like. They won’t come down unless the travel restrictions lighten. 

“We're believing now that the chances of us coming down are pretty slim, but if all of a sudden in January or February, things get better, if they come up with a vaccine that does work, we could come down, maybe for March and April,” Patrick Bogert said. 

“We are dying to get down there,” Sandy Bogert added. 

Later and longer season?

The Bogerts would still be able to enjoy plenty of season if they were able to get down in February — the peak of season doesn't begin in earnest until late January usually. 

“The second week of February, the world arrives on Longboat Key,” said Longboat Key Chamber of Commerce President Gail Loefgren. “It’s been like that for the 26 years I’ve been here. But you want to see the car carriers and the traffic getting heavier and some markers in the direction of people coming back.” 

Loefgren sees the early markers of seasonal activity appearing: Her drive home through Bradenton Beach is a little more congested by the day, and she did spot her first car carrier, the bellwether of northern arrivals. She expects that homeowners will still come down, but likely via car, and she fields calls daily from part-time residents; they’re curious what the regulations are and how many active cases there are on the island. 

For the “mini-season,” drive market visitors are keeping businesses happy, just like they did over the summer, and coming for weeklong stints rather than months. Although Loefgren believes the part-time residents will come back, she also thinks season may start later and go longer this year. 

“It's gonna be hard to plan anything next year,” Loefgren said. “I don't know how anybody's gonna do it.”

At the Longboat Key Club, there is event planning going on — but on a small scale and with plenty of precautions. The Harbourside Ballroom is a popular event spot for countless parties throughout season, usually with a big buffet in the center, but for now, it’s a meeting spot for member associations with only plated dishes to be had, and an endless cycle of cleaning and changing gloves for waitstaff. 

“We're looking as to how we get through these next couple of months,” event planner and manager Dan Wade said. “That will really help us gauge how we can move forward through the height of the season.”

The capacity of indoor spaces like the ballroom is limited, and the club is trying to take events outdoors when they can. A member survey found that about 60% planned to be back by October, so Wade is trying to plan small events for the golf and tennis associations, and maybe beach Olympics around Christmastime. 

“We've got at least some direction to the end of the year, and that was our goal,” Wade said. “So we’ll get to the end of the year and just play it safe and offer a few things.”

By 2021, Wade hopes that there will be a more normal schedule, but it all depends on the virus’ numbers. 

“I think everything's just really up in the air,” Wade said. “We're kind of taking it day by day right now.”