- April 29, 2026
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Thanks to uncertainty regarding the future of residential property taxes statewide, what was once nearly a perfunctory exercise to secure funding for each phase of development of The Bay is now more of a challenge.
On April 21, Bay Park Conservancy Founding CEO AG Lafley addressed the Sarasota County Commission on what has become a routine practice — securing a release of tax increment financing (TIF) district funds for the next round of work at The Bay park.
The model for funding of the estimated $200 million buildout of the 53-acre, bayside park, which is closing in on completion of its second phase, is 50% philanthropy via the BPC, 25% city and 25% county, the public dollars derived from the property tax revenues on the improved tax value of residential property in the downtown area adjacent to the park, set against assessed values of the property in 2019.
The original projection for The Bay park TIF district, which was established in fiscal year 2020, was estimated to generate some $190 million over the 30-year span of the district. By fiscal year 2026, rapid redevelopment of The Quay and the Rosemary District has nearly doubled those projections. The revenue forecast is based on current and future improved property tax valuations set against the benchmark of 2019. The current total is $378 million over 30 years, rising by $27 million over fiscal year 2024.
The Bay Park tax increment finance revenue projectionsPotential revenue to The Bay park and surrounding area improvements assuming 100% transfer. | |||
| Fiscal year | County TIF | City TIF | Total TIF |
| 2027 | $3,567,670 | $3,567,670 | $7,135,339 |
| 2030 | $4,698,433 | $4,698,433 | $9,396,865 |
| 2035 | $6,433,382 | $6,433,382 | $12,866,764 |
| 2040 | $8,359,997 | $8,359,997 | $16,719,993 |
| 2045 | $10,704,018 | $10,704,018 | $21,408,036 |
| 2049 | $12,939,912 | $12,939,912 | $25,879,824 |
| Total | $187,176,687* | $190,832,950 | $378,009,637 |
| Based on Sarasota County millage rate of 3.0440 mills *County transferred $3.5 million less revenue than city in fiscal years 2025 and 2026. | |||
The uncertainty of those future TIF district revenues — which per plan would be allocated to debt service for city-issued bonds — is rooted in Gov. Ron Desantis’ pledge to reform property tax, which could range from elimination of the tax to significant exemptions for Florida homesteaders only.
How much TIF revenue would be available in the future should a number of property owners in the district be partially or completely exempted from tax is unknown. The conundrum is further compounded by the county’s ability to reallocate those TIF dollars to the general fund should they remain “unspent” in The Bay. Not money that just wasn’t needed, unspent may also be defined as money the County Commission simply decides to not spend on the park, leaving it available for transfer.
The Bay Park Conservancy recommended the county commit to its 50% share of the TIF-backed city bond to pay for work at Centennial Park to cover interest and principal for the $16 million borrow. Instead, the County Commission approved including the first year’s bond debt service payment of $282,000 in the county’s fiscal year 2027 budget. The move was a cautious step toward what the BPC hopes and believes will be eventual bond approval for Phase 3, according to Lafley.
“This is a nice problem to have. We have an incredible project. It's gotten great results,” said Commissioner Teresa Mast, who voted to approve the debt service payment. “I don't think there's a negative thing you can say about it. For me, it's timing. The timing is not good, and so it's going to be very difficult for me to get past that from a budget perspective at this time.”
Lafley said Centennial Park currently serves about 100,000 boaters per year and is the largest public boat launch in the county. As part of Phase 2, a floating day dock was completed in late 2025.