Tourism outlook expects visitors leveling off in 2026

For those working in the tourism marketing industry, forecasting is akin to gazing into a cloudy crystal ball. 

Certainly there are expectations given scheduled corporate meetings at hotels, sports events planned for the region’s athletic facilities, advance bookings for accommodates and more. Still, a single global or weather event can disrupt even the best laid plans. 

No one could have predicted, for example, that the pandemic years of 2020 through 2022 would bring the crush of tourists and relocations of those seeking a less-restrictive lifestyle. Nor could they have anticipated back-to-back-to-back tropical weather systems would cost an entire season of vacationers in 2024 and reluctant travel for a large portion of 2025.

Still, the work of Visit Sarasota County continues through it all, and even though factors such as the post-pandemic return to global travel and the 2024 hurricane season have resulted in fewer visitors in the inequitable comparisons to the Covid peak, those fewer visitors are spending more. And given the value the 6% accommodations tax, or bed tax, brings to the community, that’s the mission.

Photo by Andrew Warfield

“We talk a lot about quality over quantity. We're residents, too. We would rather have fewer visitors spending more money than more visitors spending less money,” said Erin Duggan, the president and CEO of Visit Sarasota County, the county’s official tourism bureau. “We're not just resting on our laurels and getting who we get. We're being very strategic about who we're going after.”

To pursue those targeted markets, for fiscal year 2026 Visit Sarasota County received from the county about 13% of the projected accommodations tax revenue, or $8.1 million, of which $6.9 million is dedicated to promotions and nearly $1.2 million to recruiting sports competitions.

In return, VSC is credited with directly bringing about one-third of the county’s tourism plus a non-quantifiable number of visitors through ancillary awareness and repeat visitors. “But those meetings and those sports tournaments, they wouldn't be here but for us.” Duggan said.

Nor would they be here but for the hotels to accommodate them. Growth in that sector — even with the recent losses of the Hyatt Regency in downtown and the Sand Castle Resort on Lido Beach — Duggan said she expects a “flat” 2026 in terms of visitors, a welcomed trend from the declines of the prior to years.

That’s just fine with Art Ovation Hotel General Manager Wes Santos, who arrived here in 2021 with the Hyatt Regency.

Image courtesy of Adam Cellini

“I came here just when things were getting crazy that summer,” said Santos, adding more hotels in the city’s inventory has helped boost visits and revenue. Both the downtown Embassy Suites and Art Ovation were opened in 2018, just in time for the pandemic rush.

“There's just so much more development in those four years happening downtown,” Santos said. “I look from our rooftop here and there's at least six cranes, so there is a confidence level that folks are continuing to come to the area.”

The opening of the St. Regis on Longboat Key, Duggan said, has boosted the bed tax revenue with its rates. A recent search of the hotel's website showed prices ranging from $1,137 per night for a guest room to $7,106 per night for a suite, 6% of that tourism tax revenue.

When flat is good

Fiscal year 2025’s 2.71 million visitors — that number based on registered guests at the county’s hotels and vacation rentals — is down 6.3% from the 2.89 million in 2024, and their spending is down 7.1% at $2.37 billion from last year’s $2.55 billion. 

Duggan expects more of the same this year, which mirrors Sarasota County government’s fiscal year of Oct. 1-Sept. 30.

“I'm optimistic that we're going to stay flat,” she said. "Last year was a bit of a decline from 2024, so I don't think it's going to get any lower. With season kicking back in, I’m hearing some optimism again from our hoteliers. We go after a variety of audiences. You can't just go after one visitor. That's not going to fill the wide variety of rooms that we have. So we're very specific as to what markets we're going after.”

Few of those resources are allocated toward Baltimore Orioles and Atlanta Braves spring training, for example. 

“The hotel rooms are probably going to be full in March whether or not we have spring training going on,” she said. “I think it just adds an extra amenity for our residents and tourists, which is phenomenal.”

Tourism tax dollars generated in part by VSC’s efforts help pay for the amenities that draw visitors, including spring training sites Ed Smith Stadium in Sarasota and Cool Today Park in North Port, both owned and operated by the county.

Image courtesy of Visit Sarasota County

For the current fiscal year, 87% of the anticipated tourist development tax revenue will be spent on beach and facilities maintenance, facilities, capital improvements and other initiatives to attract tourism that also benefit county residents.

“Beach maintenance, sports stadiums, capital improvements and facilities like Nathan Benderson Park, arts and culture grants, these are all resident quality of life amenities that tourists are paying for,” Duggan said. “We want to move the needle. We want to take rooms that would be empty and put people in them for the benefit of the entire county.”