Real estate market conditions show signs of a more robust 2026

Some may call it stabilized, others a market correction. Either way, since the frantic real estate boom amid the pandemic years of 2020 to 2022, the local market has retreated to more of a balance both in terms of inventory and pricing.

Whether that balance favors the buyers or the sellers in part depends, as is always the case in real estate, on location. Lower land costs in farther flung suburbia brings lower prices than resales standing on lots in more urban environs. 

The Realtor Association of Sarasota and Manatee has released its year‑end 2025 real estate market report for both counties. Throughout 2025, the region experienced contrasting trends not only between the two counties, but also single-family homes vs. their condo/townhome counterparts.

Summarized the report, "The 2025 figures highlight that there is no single narrative for the Sarasota-Manatee housing market. Single‑family homes remained resilient with modest price easing and healthy sales volumes. Condos and townhomes, particularly in Sarasota, faced significant price adjustments and slower sales."

In December 2025, Sarasota’s single‑family market closed the year with 711 sales, up 17.7% from December 2024, with a median sale price of $485,000. The townhouse/condo sector, meanwhile, recorded 295 sales, up 15.2% over the December 2024, but saw the median price slide to $345,000. 

In Manatee County, December single‑family sales slipped to 612 homes, down 5.6%, with a median price near $491,500 while condo/townhouse sales climbed 13% to 244 units as the median price dipped to about $307,500. 

What does it all mean?

“When anyone asks me, 'How's the market?' my first question is always, 'What market?'” said David Crawford, 2026 RASM president and broker/owner of Catalist Realty. “And then they say, ‘The real estate market.’ And I follow up again with, ‘Which real estate market?' Even in Sarasota and Manatee counties we truly have multiple markets, not only between single-family homes and condo or townhome properties, but also between resale inventory and new construction coming to market.”

There are also contrasts between Sarasota County and Manatee County markets across all measurables, as demonstrated below:

Interest and insurance stabilization

According to Crawford, the market retreat from the anomaly of pandemic-era pricing and activity are in part a normalization, but also the result of weather concerns in the wake of the 2024 hurricane season and the resulting rapidly rising cost of homeowners insurance. 

A quiet 2025 hurricane season has somewhat eased those concerns, but shoppers still prioritize the tropical weather threat in their purchasing calculations. 

“I think that factor has been brought to the forefront and to the beginning of the equation where now a lot of our conversations right off the bat are 'What was the impact? Were these properties damaged? Where is the flood zone?,'” Crawford said. “Now it’s the first question they ask.”

Second to weather and resulting insurance costs are mortgage interest rates, which for now are settling between the upper 5% to lower 6% range. 

“Historically, we're sitting at a pretty good spot, and I think people who maybe have been waiting on the sidelines thinking interest rates were going to really pull down are now finding that they’re not going to pull up significantly or pull down significantly,” Crawford said.

Insurance reform legislation at the state level has also stabilized, if not reduced, the cost of homeowners’ insurance as more carriers have returned to the state. Also factoring into overall costs are homeowners association and community investment district (CDD) costs, which are more prevalent in suburban developments than inside the city limits, affecting overall costs.

“We can all have an idea of what a sales price is, but what really matters is what your total monthly cost is going to be,” Crawford said. “That's factoring your HOA, your CDD, what is your tax is going to be, and then determine what the true cost of ownership will be. That's how you can try to compare apples to apples.”

For 2026, those apples appear to be ripe for continued population growth, providing a positive outlook for the real estate market.

“With so much nuance and so much that has changed in cost of insurance, property taxes, flood insurance and interest rates, it really is a very segmented market,” Crawford said. “Taking all of that into consideration, we're feeling pretty good about overall sales unit volumes for this year. I think all the data is pointing to a strong season.”