Will new hotels buffer Sarasota's slumping job growth?

Though Sarasota County closed out 2015 with a 4.3% unemployment rate in December, job growth within the local metropolitan area has slipped below 2% for the first time in five years, according to non-farm payroll data released this week by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The North-Port-Bradenton-Sarasota metro area, which encompasses Sarasota and Manatee counties, added 4,400 new jobs in December compared to the same month in 2014. That 1.6% growth rate is only a third of the increase between the same months from 2013 to 2014, during which the region added 12,000 new jobs.

But, the leisure and hospitality industry, which makes up about 14% of the local economy, may be the the area's job savior.

“There’s a few issues going on,” said Greater Sarasota Chamber of Commerce President and CEO Steve Queior. “One is that I wouldn’t expect the rate of hiring we have enjoyed the last year or two to go on in a continually sustainable way.”

Below is a graph of the percentage change in non-agricultural employment for the month of December.

Job growth in December peaked at 5.2% in 2013, when the employers in the region hired 13,200 more individuals. During that same period, the hospitality sector added 2,500 jobs and grew 7%.

Another factor is the structural unemployment that arises when job-seekers’ skills don’t match up with employers’ expectations.

"When you’re a manufacturing employer and can’t get a plastic injection mold maker — and they’re not out there — then your rate of hiring tapers off,” Queior said.

The region hasn’t had a job growth rate below 2% in December since 2010, when the economy lost 1,300 jobs at the height of the recession.

And Sarasota was in the lower third of Florida’s metro areas in December in terms of year-over-year job growth, while nearby Tampa-St.Petersburg-Clearwater metro added 38,000 jobs and grew its non-farm employment 3.1% to finish fifth in the state. It’s the first time that region has outpaced North Port-Bradenton-Sarasota metro area in growth since the recession.

Queior said the hospitality industry should buffer the jobs numbers in the coming years, thanks to the hundreds of hotel rooms coming online in the city of Sarasota and elsewhere throughout the county. There are more than 1,200 hotel rooms slated for the downtown area.

"I’ve been meaning to get a read on whether we’re talking 600 to 800 — or even 1,000 — new jobs with the new hospitality facilities,” Queior said.

Panama City was the only region in Florida to lose jobs in December, with 200 fewer employed on non-agricultural payrolls over the same month in 2014. The Lakeland-Winter Haven metro area led the state in job growth, with 8,700 new jobs and a 4.2% increase over the previous year.

“I don’t see it slowing down to a flat situation,” Queior said.