NOAA predicts stormier summer

The summer has already been stormy, with six named storms to date, including Tropical Storm Debby, which brought heavy rains and wind to the region.

But the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center predicts that the second half of hurricane season will also be busy and has raised its predictions for the number of storms this season.

The NOAA released revised predictions today of 12 to 17 named storms, including five to eight hurricanes, two or three of which could become major hurricanes.

The predictions include the six named storms that have already formed during the season.

The NOAA initially predicted a below-average hurricane season in May, with nine to 15 named storms, four to eight of which would become hurricanes, and one to three of which would become major hurricanes.

“We are increasing the likelihood of an above-normal season because storm-conducive wind patterns and warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures are now in place in the Atlantic,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at the Climate Prediction Center, in a prepared statement. “These conditions are linked to the ongoing high activity era for Atlantic hurricanes that began in 1995. Also, strong early-season activity is generally indicative of a more active season.”

Forecasters also announced today that El Niño will develop in August or September, which could suppress storm development.

Forecasters don’t expect to see El Niño’s influence until later in the season.

Hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.

Contact Robin Hartill at [email protected].