Turner projects $20 million deficit

Each new household added to the city of Sarasota swells the tax base by $500 on average, explained City Commissioner Terry Turner during a Saturday Aug. 4 meeting of the City Coalition of Neighborhood Associations.

And if city of Sarasota Finance Director Chris Lyons’s budget forecast is accurate, the city could face a $20 million general fund deficit in 2022, making adding to that tax base a big priority.

“We need to have a vigorous debate about how to grow this city without destroying this city,” Turner said. The more people the city can attract, the larger the pool to share the tax burden, was his conclusion for that effort to reduce future deficits.

“It’s probably not going to be better than this,” Turned said to the board of neighborhood representatives. “And it’s likely to be worse.” The city projects a general fund deficit of $3 million for the 2013 fiscal year, but Turner said that could swell to as much as $40 million, depending on the effects of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act. “Whether it’s a good social program or not,” he said, “it’s going to be costly.”

The city is expected to spend $57 million out of the general fund in 2013, $47 million of which is allotted for wages, benefits and pension. In Lyons’ forecast, employee costs grow to $73 million of an expected total general fund budget of $86 million in 2022.

Turner said cutting staff or doubling, even tripling, the current millage rate would alleviate the potential deficit, but isn’t being considered. Instead, implementing the recent controversial pension changes and further amplifying retirement benefit cuts would nearly halve the 2022 deficit prediction.

Less tangible avenues toward slashing potential deficit are under what he labeled “doing things differently.” That includes altering police operations to be more cost-efficient and regionalizing the parks department.

Despite the options he presented, Turner stopped short of promising a frozen millage rate. “We’re going to have a tax increase,” Turner said. “It’s inevitable.”

“Using reserves or rainy-day cushions is not something we can do in the long run because they run out,” he said.