Economist predicts 'breakout year' for area

EAST COUNTY — As his PowerPoint presentation of graphs and statistics lit the screen behind him, Henry “Hank” Fishkind raved about Manatee County’s positive economic climate heading into 2014.
The economist and financial analyst, with 30 years of field experience, spoke about the increase in job opportunities and steady population growth as more than 350 area professionals listened intently to his economic forecast speech Jan. 16, at Manatee Technical Institute’s State Road 70 campus.

“We really have the wind at our backs (in Florida),” Fishkind said. “These are very good trends.”

For 15 years, the Bradenton Area Economic Development Corp. has invited an economic authority to speak once a year at a selected venue. This year’s EDC-selected finance guru — a former member of Gov. Jeb Bush’s Council of Economic Advisers, among other educator and director roles at the University of Florida — boasted about the gradual increase of younger generations returning to the Sunshine State.

As more employment opportunities surface, so will “labor-aged people” and their families, Fishkind assured event participants.

In 2008 and 2009, the 18-to-44 age group showed little to no activity on Fishkind’s radar of out-of-state residents moving to Florida, as the number of jobs available for the demographic dwindled, he said. In 2014, however, he estimates Manatee County will collectively become home to 8,000 new residents.

Fishkind credits the close proximity of East County, and other parts of the area, to the beach and other tourist attractions as being key elements that he expects to draw newcomers. Although the U.S. Census Bureau calculates Manatee County’s population to have grown by about 3,600 between 2012 and 2013, Fishkind believes the actual number is larger, and that it will increase at a strong, sustainable rate.

While population numbers and competition for jobs increase, the analyst remains optimistic and does not see any reason for job seekers to worry — there will be enough employment opportunities, he believes.

Fishkind predicts the addition of 3,200 jobs in Manatee County this year, with the possibility of a decrease in unemployment numbers in the foreseeable future.

As of November, the county’s unemployment rate sat at 6.5% — what Fishkind labeled “a good number.”

“This is really going to be a breakout year for Manatee County,” Fishkind said, smiling. “Tourism is driving Florida — and this area.”

The nearly one-hour meeting did not just touch on the positive aspects of the county’s current upswing, however.

A higher demand for credit by consumers likely will raise interest rates by 2016, Fishkind noted; he expects that to affect the housing market.

On a statewide scale, higher interest rates will increase the prices of new and existing single-family homes, he projected. However, he also sees the addition of new jobs and consumers having reliable sources of income, as a way to even the playing field with the rising interest rates.

Fishkind’s presentation assured attendees that the future of Manatee County is bright, as illustrated by a participant who smiled as he said quietly to a friend, “Well, that sounded promising.”

BY THE NUMBERS
6.5 — Percentage of unemployed Manatee County residents

3,200 — Predicted number of new Manatee County jobs in 2014

8,000 — Predicted number of new residents in Manatee County in 2014

350,000 — Number of residents who move to Florida each year

Contact Amanda Sebastiano at [email protected].